Well, here are my picks for today. My first ones aren't doing so hot, but I will review them in more detail in a couple weeks. Give them some time to settle in to whatever trend they are going to show.

Picks For Today

T.ETG

Broke through resistance and large volume a few days ago. Buy at $2.03 and stop loss at $1.75. The upside looks like it could go as high as $3 so I'm thinking this is a good buy.

T.TTH

I'm breaking from my judgement here, but we'll see what happens. This has been on a good run and recently did a dip. I'm thinking it will continue its upward trend in the near future. Buy at $2.20 and stop loss at $2.

T.PTM

They broke up again on high volume. Buy at $2.98 and stop loss at $2.55

T.CPX

Big breakthrough today. Don't know what is going on. Buy at $6.83 and stop loss at $6.00.

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I'm trying to learn the StockScores techniques I learned at a seminar last week so this will be my new thing.

Every week I am going to pick a few stocks that I think will go up in the near future and keep track of them. I always same I'm going to do this, but end up quitting after a week. This will force me to keep track better. I am going to assume I put $1000 into each pick and the commissions will be $30 on a buy and $30 on a sell. I will post a summary periodically on what has happened.

I explain why I am picking each stock, I will "pretend" buy it for the last trade price and I will also set a "stop loss" price for each stock. If it ever gets to that price, I will have assumed that I sold it then. I will follow my stocks every week and pick and exit point whenever.

Note: These charts update every 15 minutes, so keep in mind the day of this post. Any chart activity after that day I would not have seen yet.

Picks For Today

Note: There is a recap of these picks and what happened in Recap of Stock Picks From February 12th 2007.

T.THR

Resource sector. Was gone down the past while, but is trending up. Rising bottoms look like they forming a penant. I would expect it to break through this week sometime. Buy at 11 cents and stop loss at 9 cents.

T.HNT.UN

A real estate trust. A few days ago it formed a penant chart pattern and broke through resistance on lots of volume. I am going to buy it at $2.74 and my stop loss will be at $2.40.

T.RBO.UN

Another trust. Broke through resistance a few days ago with lots of volume. I am going to buy at $9.35 and my stop loss is $9.00. Upside doesn't look like it could be as big as the downside, so I'm wary, but I will try it.

T.EMC

Broke through resistance with volume. I am going to buy at $11.38 and put a stop loss at $10.50.

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I recently attended a StockScores seminar here in Calgary. Was a very interesting presentation put on by Tyler Bollhorn. Basically, it is a sales pitch for an educational program he offers on teaching yourself to buy and sell stocks effectively.

I was very impressed with the seminar and I would recommend anyone to go check him out when he is in town. He does free seminars in Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver.

His company has a website called StockScores.com. On this site you can utilize their instructional material and technical analysis tools.

Underlying Principles

There are some underlying principles that he outlines. You need to attend a seminar to here them in a clear manner. He gives good examples as well. Basically he outlines a couple of things that I agree with.

1. The Market Is Efficient - There are events that will happen to the business and the market will reflect these quickly and efficiently. If it is good, it will go up. If it is bad, it will go down.
2. Be Prepared to Lose - Set stop losses. Don't be afraid to get out of a bad stock. You should plan on losing on trades, but by a small margin.
3. The Market Is Not Fair - Yes. There are people out there with more privileges to information and can react before you can.

I especially like the last one because it reflects that you can't predict where a stock will go before everyone else.

Sentiment and Signal

There secret tool are two indicator values that are calculated for a stock every hour. The Sentiment and the Signal. Basically it is a formula that calculates the given Sentiment (market's mood toward a stock) and Signal (abnormal behaviour toward a stock). When these values pass 60 and 80 respectively, it indicates a stock to watch.

The Sentiment, in my opinion, was basically if the stock was rising in price and the Signal was if the stock has greater volume than normal. The Signal might indicate that people with more knowledge about the company are buying (or selling) the company.

Chart Patterns

If a stock hast he 60/80 values for Sentiment/Signal then it is time to look at the chart patterns. This is basic technical analysis. You can read about this in any technical analysis stock trading book or research it on the web.

Picking a Good Stock With Their Method

Referring back to the principles, the method basically tries to identify stocks that have just begun to react to events in the market and will be increasing over the near/long term. Then you must look at the stock and try to figure out the risk and reward. Is its upward possibilities going to be better than its downward possiblities.

I am not quoting him word for word, but as close to what I understood as possible. The criteria is as follows:

1. Sentiment Score is Greater Than 60
2. Signal Score is Greater Than 80
3. Good Chart Pattern
   • The price breaks through an "resistance" that it hasn't been able to overcome in the recent past.
   • The stock had low volatility in the recent past.
   • The was abnormal activity when it broke through resistance (high volume compared to normal).
   • There is optimism. The stock price is going up and the chart follows a recognizable pattern that indicates possible appreciation in value.
4. Reward Outweighs the Risk

   By looking at the chart, what is a reasonable expectation for the price to rise to and go down to. If the downside is greater than the upside, then you should walk away.

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I learned of this technique a couple years ago. It involves writing covered calls. A call is an option or derivative. If you don't understand what an option or derivative is, then do some more research online and/or read my article on options investing.

When someone says they are "writing a call", this means they are creating an call option contract and selling it to someone else who wants it. It is a contract between the writer and the buyer that guarantees the buyer, that the writer will sell him a set number of shares (100 shares per option) at a fixed price up until a specified expiry date if he chooses.

For example:

I can write/sell 1 March $25.00 call on Nortel shares for $0.15 a share. Since there are 100 shares in call that means the buyer would have to pay me $15 for it. I am guaranteeing him, that I will sell him 100 Nortel shares at $25.00 a share at any point until the end of March if he wants me to. If he never does, then the option expires at that point. So he is paying me $15 for that option.

The concept of how options works is sometimes confusing. I basically think of it as buying and selling a type of insurance on stocks. You may be willing to pay the price to buy the option of getting a stock at the price you want sometime in the future. A put is similar, but for selling.

The "covered" part of a call means that you already own the shares you are writing the call for. Not covered, or naked, means that you don't own the shares. If the buyer wishes to exercise his option, you will be forced to buy the stock at market price and then sell it to him at the option strike price ($25 in the example above). You also need to have "margin" available to cover the difference you might be out if the stock price goes higher and you will be forced to buy the stock at a higher price then you will be selling it to him. When you are covered you don't have this risk.

How Do I Make Money On This?

Your goal is this: you want the stock's price to not go higher than the strike price of you option. If it doesn't go higher than this, no one will exercise the option because it won't be worth any money. They can buy the stock for cheaper off the open market. This way, you pocket the money you sold the option for and you can then sell a new one.

The trick here is to sell an option that is in your comfort zone. If you are scared the whole time that the buyer will exercise on you because the strike price is too low, then don't bother. You will have sold it for more money, but if you don't want to be exercised than you shouldn't run that risk.

Why Would I Want to Do This?

You own a stock, you don't want to sell it right now, but you don't see it going up in the short term. Options can expire anywhere from 1 month to 6 months in the future. If some bad news has come out or for some reason you think the stock will stay flat or go down (like oil companies in the summer can sometimes do) then selling a call might be a good choice.

What Are The Risks

If the stock decides to go on a run then you will be forced to sell the stock or buy back your option for more money. You will be out either the appreciation in the stock minus what you sold your call for or you will be out the amount you had to buy your option back for minus what your call for.

My Thoughts On It

I have tried this technique and to tell you the truth, I haven't made any money on it overall. I had some Nortel shares I bought in 2001 that had gone down and look they would never go up so I was just selling covered calls on them. I would make money on most of them, but then Nortel would take a run and I would buy them back at a loss. Unfortunately that one loss was enough to offset the 4 gains I had before that.

I still believe this is a useful technique though, but there are few things to note.

• It requires that you pay very close attention and watch the markets frequently. If your stock takes a run and you don't notice for a few days you could be hurting.
• Don't be afraid to get out as soon as you are sitting at a small loss. Too many times people let their emotions get in the way and hold on because they don't want to take a loss on a option (or a stock for that matter).
• Don't mess around with volatile stocks unless you have the nerve. These are the ones that pay really well, but there is a reason for that. They are volatile, the risk and rewards are greater. This being said, if you do the math, these are usually the only stocks that give you decent returns if you want to use covered calls for a high rate of return. I would just be happy to make my $100 every couple months on a slow mover and be safe, but that is my opinion.
• If you think the stock is going to tank, just leave your call and sell your stock (if your trading account won't let you have uncovered calls you will need to buy it back). Most of your money is tied up in the stock and this is where your biggest loss will be, so sell it if you need to.

How Should I Start?

Read up some more. Here are some useful links.

• Montreal Exchange - This is the site the handles option trading in Canada. You can get quotes and such here.
• Investopedia's Options Basics - This site always has tidbits to teach you.
• Nothing But Options - I like there examples here. Helps to get the idea on how options work.
• Finance - Yahoo - There finance pages give you access to quotes for all the American stocks.

Paper trade for the first while. Pick a stock you own, look up the current price to sell a call for it, and write that number down. Also write down what your commissions would have been (check your brokerage's rates). Keep an eye on it to see how it moves. It will decrease in value as time decreases, but will also go up and down with the price of the stock. If the value of the option becomes worth less than what you sold it for by quite a bit then "pretend" to buy it back or you can let it expire if the stock price never goes above the strike price.

After you can paper trade and make money 4 out of 5 times. Think about getting an account approved for covered calls and try your hand on small amounts for awhile. After that, its up to you.

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Options are an investment vehicle that offer a bit more sophistication for the average investor. They can be hard to understand and I will try to explain it in more detail here.

What Is An Option?

An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a set number of shares of a stock at a specified price (called the strike price) during a specific period of time.

A call option is the right to "buy" and the put option is the right to "sell".

Here is an example. I looked on the exchange today (Dec. 6, 2006). Nortel Networks (NT) was trading in Canada for $25.20/share. There was a call option selling on the options exchange for January 2007 with a $25.00 strike price for $1.60/share. What does this mean? If you buy this option contract it will cost you $1.60/share. One contract is 100 shares so you will have to pay $160.00 plus commissions to your brokerage. You then have the option to buy Nortel shares for $26.00/share between now and the the 3rd Friday of January (because it is a January contract).

Now you would ask, "Why would I want to do that? It is only $25.20 right now anyways." That is true, but what will it go to by the time it expires? You could buy the stock right now, but you would have to pay 100 X $25.20 or $2,520. That is a lot of upfront cash. The cost of the option is only $160. If the stock doesn't do anything or goes down, you are only aout $160. But if the stock goes up, you will have the option of buying the stock for the lower amount and then reselling it for the higher amount with only having to put down $160.

This illustrates the leverage your money has with options investing. With little money you can make quite a bit of money.

Please keep in mind that options have a value associated to them based on how much they are worth if you did exercise them. There are two components that make up the value of an option.

• Intrinsic Value

  This is the current value of the stock minus the strike price of the option. This represents how much you would make per share if you were to exercise you buy the shares at the strike price and sell them back onto the open market.

• Time Value

  This gives value to how much time is left before the option expires. The more time left, the more time value there is, because there is more time left for the stock to make a significant price move.

So since these options have a value before they expire, they can be sold to other buyers for their value. 99% of all option contracts are never exercised. If they go up or down you just sell/buy them, because it is more of a pain to then buy or sell the stock that goes with them. You can just do them both separately if you want to. I just explain them the way I do because it is easier to understand.

Call Options

If you purchase a call option, you are guaranteeing you will be able to buy a stock from someone at a specified price between now and the end of the option contract.

Put Options

If you purchase put option, you are guaranteeing you will be able to sell a stock to someone at a specified price between now and the end of the option contract.

Insurance?

You can also think of options as a type of insurance on stock prices. You are paying a fee to have the option to buy and sell you stock at a specific price. If you are holding a volatile stock or you are uncertain of the future, you can purchase options to guarntee your price in the future.

The Downside

The negative point about options is that you are buying something that isn't worth anything, really. You don't own the stock, you just own a time sensitive contract between someone else and yourself. If the stock price moves significantly higher (for a call) you will be in the money and the option will be worth something at that point, but before then it is nothing. Stocks rarely ever go to 0 and you can always hold on to them forever. They actually mean something tangible.

When Would I Want to Buy an Option?

There are lot of scenarios and some of them are very complex. There is also the topic of "selling" options. I will cover this more later and you can read about it in my article Making Money Writing Covered Calls. The scenarios I have seen for buying options are:

• You believe that the stock in a specific company is going to go up significantly, but you are lacking the funds or margin to buy the stock outright for yourself and you want to buy quite a bit of it. For a smaller price you can purchase call options. If the stock goes up, you can purchase the stock later for the more favorable price or you can even just sell the option contract because its value will go up.
• You currently own a ton of stock in a company. You are scared to hold onto the stock because it has become extremely volatile or bad news has come out, yet the price is still quite reasonable. You don't want to sell right now because it is the end of the tax year or you want to wait a few months for other reasons. You can buy enough puts to match the amount of stock you have. If the stock goes down significantly, it won't be a big deal, because you have locked in a price to sell it at.
• You think a stock will go up in the short term and you don't want to own the stock because you can buy 10 times more options with the same amount of money and have more leverage. You purchase call options
• You think a stock will go down in the short term and you don't own any anyways. You can buy put options which will go up in value if the stock price decreases significantly.

There are lots of other strategies and techniques, but I won't go into them here.

Another item to look at is technical investing. This is a huge strategy used by options investors. You can read volumes on these strategies so I won't even go near them right now.

Look for more options strategies in my blog in the future.

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When you are looking at properties it is often hard to decide what to look for. Establishing your own set of criteria is the best bet. No worries, its not set in stone. You can adjust them however you need as you learn more. But to determine if it is good or not you have to also know whats bad. You can do this by comparing to other ones that are bad.

When my wife and I were looking for our first house we had the following criteria:

• It must have a suite for rental income
• Seperate laundries (a demand from the wife)
• Enough available parking
• Suitable interior in both living spaces

From this you can see a few things that were important to us. The financial return and suitable appeal to renters and ourselves.

Since then I have learned so much more about rental houses I am embarrassed at how much I did not know at the time. This will probably be even more true in another year.

Comparing Financials

This is the biggest thing I have learned to compare houses. You can look at a hundred houses without ever leaving your computer and doing a comparison of the financials on them. Create your own spreadsheet (or use mine below) to punch in the numbers for each house you look at and see what type of returns you are looking at. There are two main components to house analysis. What will the cash flow be and what is the overall return.

Cash Flow

This is what cash will be coming in and out of your pocket every month. Rent cheques are the income and then your expenses are mortgage, insurance, utilities, maintenance costs, and any other services you provide.

It is important that you have decent cash flow. If it is negative by a lot, that means you will be paying out of your own pocket every month and this will be hard to sustain. Slight negative and even positive (you are making money) is a good sign.

Overall Return

This is composed of the cash flow, but also takes into account the appreciation/depreciation of the house value and the fact that part of your mortgage payment actually goes to the principle amount on the house (money you are actually retaining).

Positive return is a must otherwise you are wasting your time. You also want it to be reasonably high for the risk you are taking. Anything less than what you can get from the bank or other secure investments is too much risk for not enough reward.

Simple Analysis

Download House Analyzer

Try my house analyzer spreadsheet to get a look at a house. This is a quick litmus test for any property you look at. Basically it takes into account the following:

• Mortgage (expected interest rate and house value)
• Rental Income
• Expected House Appreciation
• Expected Maintenance Costs (1% of the house value)
• Taxes

You can see a screenshot of it below. It might look a bit complicated but just look at it and try to understand at first. This will be too simple for any of you who have did this already. Any of the grey boxes you should fill in and the yellow boxes are the important ones. Punch in these values

• Value of the House: What you think you can get it for.
• Yearly Taxes: This should be available from the listing or on a municipal web site.
• Mortgage Rate: If you have been pre-approved you know this for sure, otherwise just ball-park it based on the current rates.
• Appreciation Rate: How much have houses on average increased in this city. Take a guess but be conservative.
• Rental Income: What can you rent it for? What are other houses renting for in the area?
• Gas, Water & Sewage, and Power: How much do you expect to pay for these? If you plan on the tenants paying these bills then put in zero. Make sure to reflect that in your rent though.

Now if you look at the yellow values, it will roughly tell you your monthly cash flow which will tell you how much money you will make or be out every month. The ROI is the return on investment. This tells you what you are actually making on this whole venture at the end of the day. If this is negative, walk away. If it is less than 10% and this won't be a personal residence then walk away. Any higher and you should probably be alright.

Bottom line: Look for positive cash flow and over 10% rate of return. This is hard to find trust me. My example shows it, but this was after looking for a long time on my part. This is an actual house I have seen in the past.

Note that I have 3 sets of calculations for the returns. One is in the situation you have no vacancies and no management (you do it yourself), the second is just 1 month of vacancy and no management, and the third is 1 month of vacancy and you have to pay someone 10% of your gross rent to manage. These are just for comparison and if you want to take the worst case scenario than do so. I have always kept no vacancy and self manage so I accept more risk and use the more favorable numbers for myself.

Download House Analyzer.

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The rental value of your property can go up just by following the market (or down if that is the market direction), but if you have the time, you can have more control over this. Improving your property can do two things.

1. Make it more desireable to potential buyers, increasing its potential sale value
2. Make it more desireable to potential renters, increasing its potential rent value. There are two components here. The base amount of rent you can ask for (what they feel it is worth) and what you can charge extra for if they want access to other features to your property (if it is multi-unit and they want to use it for themselves).

We will focus on the second item in this article. The first is covered more in the article Increasing the Value of Your Property

Here is an example. My wife an I purchased an up/down duplex for our first home. We live in the top half and rent the bottom half. One of the biggest things we are missing is a garage. We live in a city with cold, harsh winters where garages are the norm. Should we build one? If we did we would probably notice the two points I mentioned above like as follows:

1. Garages give the house more value. When we went to sell this would be reflected in the sale price. It would also allow us to have our how reassessed if we wanted to increase our borrowing ability from the bank.
2. The garage is now a feature of the property. We can demand more rent from our basement suite because we will let them use the garage. We could put an ad in the paper and rent the garage to the local "mechanic". A lot of people rent garages for a variety of reasons (hobbies, storage, classic car, motorbikes, etc.)

The other question that comes up is, "Is it worth it?" This is another one you would have to analyze. How much is it going to cost me and what is my expected return? Say a nice double garage that is insulated will cost $20,000 (I don't know I'm just throwing a number out there). If you can tie this into your existing mortgage then the cost will be spread out over, say, 20 years at 6.5% interest. This would translate to about $148/month on top of your mortgage payment. So can you charge more than this in rent for the garage? That is a question we would have to figure out. Check out rent prices. At an apartment I used to live at, we paid $50 per parking spot. That would mean $100 for our garage, but it has the added bonus of storage space and they can put their own lock on the door. I would think that clearing $148 would be reasonable. Unfortunately, at our house there are some other circumstances preventing it.

The garage is just one illustration and a fairly dramatic one. Here are some other ones that are good for increasing rent:

Multi-suite situations
If there is a feature of the property that a tenant would want private access to, then it can be an asset. Tenants also like their privacy and the worst situation to have is tenants annoying one another. There are ways to alleviate this.

• Adding washers and dryers so there is no shared laundry (in multi-suite situations).
• Add a dog-run to the backyard and charge monthly rate for using it if they have pets.
• Provide wireless internet and charge a fee to each tenant (remember that the sum should be more than what you pay, you are providing them with a hassle free service).
• If it is a single furnace and only one thermostat to control it, the other suites could have baseboard heaters for a little extra control. I have seen houses with two furnaces too, that would be a dream.
• Seperate hot water tanks or put in a huge one so no one uses up all the water on the other people.
• Seperate access to the suites (not a shared one). They each have their own door, track their own dirt onto their own mat, and have their own porth to clean. You get the idea.

Standalone House or Multi-Suites

• A fully fenced off yard is a dream for parents with small children (if you are in that market).
• Having a nice deck
• A garage
• A shed
• Nice landscaping in the yard. Just a few trees and shrubs is fine. Things that don't take much maintenance.

I'm not saying all these things will equate to money, but if you have the time and resources they don't hurt to add (especially if you are living there and will reap the benefits too). If you treat your tenants right, it will pay off in the long run. The place will demand a higher rent, in turn attracting a higher "class" crowd if I might say. You attract people who appreciate it a bit more. Try tackling one project a year. It gives you a bit of a tax write-off, your tenants will feel you are an "involved" landlord, and your property will become more attractive.

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So you want to buy an investment property? This is always a huge step the first time. I am by no means an expert and I am just going to give advice based on what I did. If you have any other tips or good links, send me an email and I'll add it to the page.

One way to lessen the learning curve is to look at your first home as an investment property. This is what I did. My wife and I were unsure of how long we would be staying in a particular city and did not want to get caught trying to sell a house in a down market. Our rule was that the property had to have at least a basement suite. This would give us some rental income, a few tax writeoffs, and if we had to move, we could keep it for awhile as a rental. Also living in the upstairs let us keep a close eye on our tenants and we could quickly respond as landlords to any needs they had until we got the hang of it.

Choosing an Investment Property

Educate yourself, look at houses, talk to people (anyone), and find a way to compare for yourself. If you look at one place and ask "How do I know if it is a good investment?", I can answer that for you, you have no clue if it is. Doing the real estate game involves a mind-set and understanding of what is important.

Educating yourself can be done a variety of ways. Pick up some books at the library and there are lots of audio books available that explain the basics of owning a house. Talk to people you know. If you know anyone who has been a landlord before or was a tenant, they will have advice and tips on what might work and what will not. There are web sites galore on this subject matter and lot of them will be annoying and more of an advertisement for some product they are selling, but there are good ones out there.

Look at properties. Lots of them. I went to a seminar once and the goal was to look at 100 properties in a month. This does not mean physically going to each one, but it does mean looking at one and analyzing it.

Analyze properties as frequently as possible. This is what gives you the first clue as to how the market works. You will begin to understand "value". Second, it gives you a way to compare. By establishing a set of criteria, 80 of those 100 houses you look at will be discarded without even walking out the front door of your house.

Read my more detailed article on How to Analyze an Investment Property.

Recommended Information:

• Rich Dad, Poor Dad series are quite good. The Real Estate Riches one gives you lots of advice and is available in audio format. Be careful though, this guy trys to pan himself off as an expert, but has never proved that he has did anything other than tell other people what to do. YOu can read more about his detractors here.
• MLS is the Canadian real estate listings. Just go on and start looking.
• Pay attention to the paper and go to free seminars. 20/20 Properties is one and so is Fast Track to Cash Flow. Whether you think they are full of B.S. or not, you will still learn something from them.
• Any book from the library on being a landlord or buying property.

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Mutual funds are one of the most common investment vehicles for the average investor. They are comprised of a group of stocks and other investment options all rolled into one that someone else manages. You can pick a lot of different flavours when its comes to mutuals so look around. They are great for those who do not want to think about the investments all the time, but this does not mean you should not follow them at all. You would think that a professional fund manager would be able to make you a decent return, but this is often not the case. Funds can perform differently for variety of reasons.

• Difference in style by the fund manager. Some can be quite aggressive with most of the money invested in higher risk areas. Others can be very conservative, invested in a wide range of conservative areas, or they might even sit on large pools of cash and invest only when they believe the time is right.
• Mutuals are part of different sectors. Oil and gas as well as real estate have enjoyed significant gains the past couple years.
• Management Expense Ratio (MER). How much money does it take to maintain this fund. This is the money paying for the stock transactions, fund manager and his employees, other expenses related to managing a fund. A high MER cuts into your return. If the fund manager is a very aggressive trader this can be higher due to the transaction fees and number of analysts he has working for him.

The bottom line is...NOT ALL FUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL. My biggest recommendation is to compare,compare,compare. When you are picking a fund (or your advisor is picking one for you), compare its performance to other funds of the same industry or classification. My favourite site is GlobeFund. You can get a good 2-4 page report from their site with a quick breakdown and comparison against funds that are in the same category over time. If a fund made 10% last year, but the average for its category was 15% you need to ask yourself, why? Or if the average over the past 10 years was 5% and the fund made 10%. Most likely it is the fund manager. If you are going to expose yourself to an industry, look for the fund manager who has had the most success, chances are, it will carry on.

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These are an investment vehicle like stocks or mutuals. The most common types used to be real estate and natural resources. They usually pay monthly dividends to the share holder and enjoy some tax benefits because of how they are structured so are able to pay higher dividends than a typical corporation. This has changed recently in Canada due to a change in tax policay by the federal government. However, these changes will not take effect until 2011 in Canada so they are still a good option for investors looking for a steady monthly income.

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